07/18 : Athletics at Twins

[KingFrank]

07/18 : Minnesota Twins + 115 over Oakland Athletics

Oakland is 0-2 in two Zito (8-6, 3.28) starts vs. Minnesota this season. Zito is 1-3 life vs. the Twins with a 5.15 ERA. The A's are 13-17 in the second game of a series.(Minn won game one 6-2)

Minnesota is 3-1 in four Santana (4-2, 3.00) starts this season. Santana is 1-0 life vs. Oakland with a 4.15 ERA.

Minnesota has defeated Oakland in seven of the past eight meetings.

 

[dottom]

But Zito found his pitching last time out and also has a chip on his shoulder b/c of All-Star situation.

Santana may be 3-1, but he's only had 4 starts all season! The other 27 appearances were all relief. He lost his last start.

Minnesota bullpen has 6.53 ERA L10; 7.81 L3 (and they didn't give up an ER last night).

Twins have 1 win in last L9; 2 in L14; 7 in L29. Anyway you slice it, it ain't good.

Oakland is 6-1 L7 with Tschida behind the plate. They like his strike zone.

How often in the past have you been able to get Zito at -135 in any game, home or away? Maybe if he was going up against Pedro, Clemens @NY, or Johnson/Schilling in interleague.

This game screams Zito....

 

[peteep]

I agree. Zito with this little chalk against a slumping team deserves a play.

 

[giorg0s]

A's on artificial turf .....

Naaah

 

[dottom]

Turf is just one of many factors. Maybe with all other factors being equal, turf may add to one side. You need to look at the whole picture, including who is pitching and how other related trends. Also, for everyone who looks at the "turf/grass" angle, have you looked at the second or third game AFTER the initial game? Some teams do need some adjustment.

Also, you need to look at the type of pitcher. Hudson is a ground ball pitcher. A's last night had problems with ground balls in the 1st inning, but Twins only scored 1 run after that. Hudson has one of the highest ground/fly ball ratio in the game. (e.g. 3 games ago in Seattle Hudson had 16 GB and only 1 FB!)

Also, how well do teams do after a loss? Some people don't care about this stat but I find it meaningful. Some teams bounce back well, others don't, some say it's just coincidence. For what it's worth, Oakland has won 64% of it's games following a loss- a healthy ratio.

Now you take a team who has had one game to adjust to the turf (check your stats for those who follow turf/grass angle, the first game is the one that applies, subsequent ones the affects are much diminished), consider the pitching matchups, trends, and viola, Oakland all the way.

Just my take anyways. I'm heaving on the small chalk. GL to you.

 

[dottom]

Man, Zito has been impressive, but Oakland offense equally unimpressive. Wish I jumped on the under. Good call those who had the under, it' slooking good, Twinkies up 1-0 (unearned run) in the 7th.